In today's release, we’ll cover the following topics:
It is no secret that the US economy is recovering rapidly due to an incredibly large amount of financial incentives. A certain part of this money is directed to the financial markets, thereby contributing to the steady growth of US stock indices. But at the same time, I will pay attention to the recovery of consumer activity in the United States. At this stage, it may seem that the launched mechanism of pumping the American economy with money is ideal, because we are seeing a positive economic effect.
Unfortunately, this is not quite true. The Federal Reserve's printing press is operating at record levels of capacity, but not all printed money remains in the United States. I suggest that you pay attention to only one of the many channels of leakage – the trade deficit, which has already reached a historical high, exceeding the mark of $71 billion. The increase in the deficit is due to a rather strong decrease in export volumes. At the moment, this is not critical for the US economy, but it may have negative consequences in the longer term.
Now let's move on to European currencies and, in particular, to the British pound sterling. For most of the week, it declined, including in tandem with the US dollar, which is surprising, because during this time the US dollar index collapsed by 1%. The weakening of the British currency is due to the appearance of information in the media that the rate of vaccination in foggy Albion will be significantly slowed down until the end of July, and there is also a possibility of refusal of the AstraZeneca vaccine for people under 30 years old.
As a result, the GBP/USD currency pair collapsed by almost 200 points, and this is subject to a general weakening of the US dollar. For example, during the same period, the GBP/JPY currency pair lost more than 300 points. In general, the mood of traders and investors remains bearish for the British currency, so there is still a risk of its further weakening.
The situation in the precious metals market is completely opposite. The price of gold is very close to the level of $1,750 – this is the maximum in March and also a strong technical resistance level. In this case, the key driver of growth remains the ongoing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and record amounts of financial stimulus. After all, a certain part of the liquidity is sent to this market. Nevertheless, the trend remains bearish, so there is still a risk of another wave of decline, especially at the time of correction of the main US stock indices.
At the end of today's review, I will note a low saturation of the news background. However, traders still need to pay attention to the upcoming publication of reports on unemployment in Canada, as well as the producer price index in the United States. Economists forecast a rise in the producer price index in March to a record high since September 2011. Confirmation, and even more so exceeding the forecast, may support the US dollar. After all, the growth of this indicator increases the probability of further inflation growth in April and May of this year.
Closely monitor the news background and be prepared for all the surprises of the market.